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With strategic buyers growing increasingly selective (this group has historically paid a median of 1.2 times more for brands than private equity players per company filings, whose business models necessitate a more near-term focus on return on investment), 2023 and 2024 passed with only the most attractive — or attractively priced — deals getting done. Hopes that 2025 would mark the return of a white-hot M&A market dimmed after President Trump’s ‘Liberation Day’ tariff announcements sent US equity markets into a tailspin. In the aftermath, several sell-side M&A and refinancing processes have been put on hold or have delayed launching to investors as companies, equity investors and lenders alike reassess potential risks. It’s still early to say if beauty brands will face tougher financing all year, but lenders are already tightening terms for brands that sell non-essential products people usually buy when they have extra money such as beauty or fashion, especially those with direct exposure to tariffs, says Ben McArthur, VP of private credit at TCW. He adds: “Since the tariff announcements, opening leverage for the consumer discretionary sector [lenders are now offering less EBITDA/debt than they were before the tariff announcements] has reduced by a quarter to a half-turn from where the market was clearing prior to Trump’s ‘Liberation Day’ announcements.” As a result, beauty brands are likely to face an uphill battle when it comes to getting attractive lending terms, a crucial factor in the deal-making process.Welcome To The Cottage Shirt
Many remain hopeful that the remainder of 2025 will offer more fertile ground for deal-making. “We are seeing a very rich pipeline of interesting brands and also interested investors in the beauty category,” says Federica Levato, senior partner at management consultancy Bain & Co. Levato doesn’t expand on the brands, but notes, “We may be experiencing global uncertainty, but we believe that the beauty industry has proven to be not only resilient during macroeconomic crises or uncertainties, but also sustains a decent level of growth and development after a crisis.” The brand: Rhode delivers minimalist, high-performance skincare and cosmetics focused on barrier repair and the now iconic ‘glazed doughnut skin’ aesthetic. Launched in 2022, the brand reportedly reached nearly $200 million in annual revenue within just two years, driven by global expansion across the UK, Canada and several EU markets in 2023, as well as a successful entry into colour cosmetics with lip tints and blush. Per influencer marketing tool CreatorIQ, Rhode’s earned media value (EMV)* soared 366 per cent year-on-year to $248 million in 2024, fuelled by viral moments, including lip gloss phone cases, buzzy NYC and LA pop-ups, and founder Bieber’s personal social engagement.
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