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In the US, macro trends paint a troubling picture. Consumer confidence, a key barometer for the national economic outlook, plunged to a 12-year low this week, according to non-profit The Conference Board’s latest reading, published 25 March. At the same time, inflation remains stubbornly above the 2 per cent target set by the US Federal Reserve in 2012, hindering stable economic growth. Oliver Chen, managing director at Cowen and Company, which specialises in luxury equity research, is closely monitoring inflation data and consumer sentiment to gauge the health of the luxury sector as well as the high-end consumer. “There are plenty of warning signs,” says Chen, though he stresses that the likelihood of the US economy officially slipping into a textbook recession remains in flux. “People have money to spend,” he notes. “It’s just a matter of whether they feel like it or not. Right now, the headline risk around inflation is shaping consumer sentiment — and that, in turn, is influencing spending.”Maga Women For Rapists Shirt
Neil Saunders, managing director of retail at data analytics firm Globaldata, has also observed a “modest pullback” in spending. Retail sales in February inched up just 0.2 per cent from the previous month after January’s revised 1.2 per cent drop, according to the US Department of Commerce. The weaker-than-expected recovery — falling well short of the 0.7 per cent increase economists had projected — is yet another sign that consumer spending is losing momentum, adding to concerns that the economy may be tilting towards a recession. The odds of a US recession essentially amount to a coin flip, according to a Deutsche Bank survey that underscores the uncertainty surrounding the economy’s trajectory. The survey, conducted in late March, puts the probability of a downturn over the next year at 43 per cent, reflecting mounting concerns over slowing growth. Add to this a brewing trade war, with President Donald Trump enlisting tariffs as a weapon against both allies and adversaries, and the likelihood of an economic slump becomes even harder to ignore.
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